A budget split by evidence,
not by habit or last year's plan
Most media budgets are split the way they were last year, with small adjustments. We build a plan from your own data: where each channel's returns start to diminish, what a 20% budget cut or increase would likely do, and what split actually fits your margin.
Where the money leaks today
Most businesses split budget across channels the way they always have, adjusted a little up or down based on gut feel, without modelling where each channel’s returns actually start to flatten. This means a channel that could absorb more budget profitably stays underfunded, while a channel already past its efficient point keeps receiving more simply out of habit.
The second failure is ignoring cannibalisation between channels: Meta, Google and TikTok often compete for the same in-market buyer, so a dollar moved from one to another does not always produce the incremental result it appears to on paper, and a budget plan that ignores this overestimates what reallocation will achieve.
A media mix model is a hypothesis built from your own historical data, not a universal formula; the same channel can be past its efficient point for one business and still underfunded for another with a different margin structure or sales cycle, which is why we build the model from your numbers specifically, not from an industry-average template.
What we do
- Diminishing-returns analysis. Your own historical spend and results data analysed per channel to estimate where each one’s marginal return starts to decline.
- Scenario modelling. Concrete estimates of what a 10%, 20% or larger budget shift toward or away from a channel is likely to do, before you commit real spend to finding out.
- A margin-aware split. Budget allocation tied to your actual CAC targets and product margins, not an arbitrary percentage split copied from industry norms.
- Cannibalisation checks. Overlap between channels competing for the same buyer identified, so reallocation estimates are not overstated.
- A living quarterly plan. Checkpoints built in to revisit the model as real results come in, since a media mix plan is a working hypothesis, not a one-time decision.
What we need from you
- Historical spend and performance data by channel, ideally 6 months or more.
- Your actual CAC targets and product or service margins.
- Clarity on business goals for the period: growth, efficiency, or a specific CAC ceiling.
- Access to or willingness to share data from each platform’s own reporting.
- A commitment to revisit the plan at the agreed checkpoints rather than treating it as fixed.
How we measure
The deliverable is the model and plan itself, a written document plus a call, with the model’s assumptions stated clearly so you can see exactly why a particular split is recommended, not just the final numbers. Where you engage us for ongoing management, the quarterly checkpoints compare actual results against the model’s predictions, refining it over time.
We report model confidence honestly: some reallocation recommendations are backed by strong historical data, others are a reasonable estimate that should be tested with a smaller budget shift first.
We also flag which of the model’s recommendations we would want to validate with a smaller test first, since not every reallocation the model suggests carries the same level of confidence.
Price and timeline
| Option | Price | What’s included | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch or audit | from $900 | Diminishing-returns model, scenario planning and a written quarterly budget plan. | 1 to 2 weeks |
| Monthly management | from $900 / month | Quarterly model refresh plus ongoing channel management informed by it. | monthly, no lock-in |
| Full control, handover to your team | from $2,000 | Model, assumptions and planning framework documented and handed to your team. | 2 to 3 weeks |
Related
This page sits under our Performance marketing and Analytics work. See also Conversion tracking and capi setup, Agency of record management, Ad account audit and recovery for adjacent paid-channel services.
For the automation side of reporting and budget decisions, see ad budget allocation and marketing mix attribution. For real numbers behind these benchmarks, read the analytics hub with an AI analyst case study and LatAm media-buying, 30,000+ installs case study.
Ready to see what this would look like for your account? Get in touch and we will look at your current setup in the first call.
FAQ
How much does this cost?
A standalone plan starts from $900. Ongoing management with quarterly model refreshes built in starts from $900 a month.
How long until we see results?
The model and plan take 1 to 2 weeks to build from your historical data. Validating its predictions against real results takes a full quarter, which is why checkpoints are built into the plan.
What ad budget do we need alongside this?
This service does not require new ad spend itself; it is priced as a planning project, separate from whatever media budget the plan ultimately allocates.
What do you need from us?
At least 6 months of spend and performance data by channel, your real CAC targets and margins, and a commitment to revisit the plan at its scheduled checkpoints.
How do you report on performance?
A written plan with stated assumptions and confidence levels per recommendation, plus quarterly checkpoints comparing actual results against the model's predictions if you continue with us.